Battle of the MVP Candidates, Finals Preview?

Leading Most Valuable Player contenders Kevin Durant and Lebron James faced off yesterday at Chesapeake Arena in Oklahoma City in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season. Despite a terrible game from the SG in a PG's body, Russell Westbrook, the Thunder were still able to soundly defeat the Heat as KD put the team on his back with 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists.

The Thunder's offensive execution finally reached its potential, straying away from the isolation offense that it's been relying on all season. Westbrook and Durant average a combined 51.9 ppg, but are both top 5 in the league in unassisted field goals. 53% of Durant's field goals are unassisted and a jaw-dropping 77.9% of Westbrook's field goals come without the aid of his teammates. James Harden also thrives on creating his own shots (50.2%). Yesterday, however, with Westbrook fizzling against the Heat's stellar perimeter defense (13 points on 25% FG shooting), Durant took on the role of both scorer and distributor, in true MVP-fashion. Durant's distributive explosion made every player on the Thunder a threat, deeply contrasting the style of play that has worked surprisingly well for the Thunder all season. He played a Lebron-style game, and most importantly gave the Thunder's bigs the ability to score. Serge Ibaka (averaging 9.0 ppg) scored 19 points on 8 field goals, 6 of them assisted. An even larger surprise was the offensive play of Kendrick Perkins (averaging 4.8 ppg), who put up 16 points on 8 field goals, every single one of which was assisted. The Thunder eclipsed their team apg average by 7.4. It was almost magical how the Thunder were able to seamlessly shift their offensive strategy in the face of the most formidable perimeter defense in the NBA, bringing back nightmares of the Mavericks' team offense that devastated the Miami Heat in the 2011 Finals.

In terms of the MVP discussion, the last few weeks (inclusive of this game) have vaulted Durant into the clear #1 spot. Yes, while Lebron does have a PER of 31.02 (a "runaway MVP candidate" according to John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating reference guide), his play has been on a decline as Wade has assumed some of the heavy-lifting for Miami in recent games. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant is having the best season of his career and has his team on track for 50 wins in this 66 game season. The legitimate improvements he's made in the non-scoring aspects of his game warrant the MVP as a reward, as his distribution and rebounding (especially) have been absolutely instrumental in the completeness of the Thunder as a team this season. Even though Westbrook is putting up an insane average of 24.0 ppg, Durant is the undisputed leader, undisputed clutch scorer, and undisputed most valuable player of the Thunder. Meanwhile, Lebron is shying away from the limelight as Dwyane Wade, who is averaging 24, 6, and 5 in the month of March and is the Heat's man in the clutch, regains his old form.

Although I believe that Durant deserves the MVP over James this season, I don't believe that the Thunder can defeat the Heat in a 7-game series. If these teams are to meet in the 2012 NBA Finals, I don't expect the Thunder to sustain a distributive offense as the Heat makes its defensive adjustments. It'll only be a matter of time before the Thunder reverts back to its isolation offense, which historically does not do so hot in the playoffs (last section: "Playoff problems?"). Russell Westbrook, hassled by a pesky Wade, will once again idly dribble at the perimeter, and subsequently make either an unproductive pass or a careless turnover resulting from an ill-advised drive towards the basket. And Durant has a career average of 2.7 apg. He cannot and will not get 8 assists in every game of a series against the Heat like he did tonight. When the Thunder return to what feels natural to them (isolation plays and guarded jump shots) the Heat defense will carve them up. Maybe a Heat-Thunder finals will extend to 6 games, but don't expect the Thunder to perform like they did tonight 4 times against a highly experienced Heat team led by the vindictive duo of James and Wade.

Kobe, please step back a little. Just a smidge.

After 5 straight wins and 2 straight losses, it was nice to see the Lakers down the defending champs for the third time this season. But at the same time, Kobe had a distinct advantage tonight that he didn't have the past two times versus the Mavs; Shawn Marion, the Black Mamba's kryptonite, was out with a sore knee. And as a result, Kobe made more points tonight than his past two games against Dallas combined.

Everything seems to be gung-ho in Laker land now. Ramon is (forgive me, it's the first and last time) now in session, going 17 and 9 on 5/6 shooting, against Dallas tonight. Pau is no longer marred by trade rumors, and can (hopefully) consistently produce as well as he did tonight (27 points on 13/16 shooting and 9 boards). And Andrew Bynum is playing magnificently. He's finally proving to Lakers fans that taking the final prep-to-pro player in league history is paying off.

But amidst all of this, something needs to be fixed. And I hate to say it, but it's the Black Mamba.

No, I'm not saying that he regress dramatically. After 16 years of Hall of Fame playing, it's just stupid for me to say that he become a second or third option. Kobe is, and will still be, the face of the Lakers. I'm just saying that he doesn't need to prove that he can score the highest ppg in the league, he needs to prove that he can win a 6th championship. And he has the big men to do such a thing, if he just lowers the amount of shots that he takes.

Kobe's shooting a low .428, the lowest since his rookie and sophomore years. Kobe's never been above .500, and while annoying, it's something we have to accept: Kobe wants the ball. But with the rise of Bynum, the stress-free Pau Gasol, and the new and improved point guard Sessions (seriously, this guy is good-- watch this and this), Kobe doesn't HAVE to do all of the work. The place where he can cut down most is his three point shooting--he's shooting a 2nd career-worst .292 from downtown.

We're talking about a team with a center averaging 18 and 13. Sure, Dwight is number 1, but going down a couple posts on this very site, it's clear that Dwight doesn't know what he's doing with his career. Andrew Bynum is ok being the number 2 option; he's thriving in that position. He doesn't want the attention Howard does, and that's why he is the most consistent center in the West right now. At the same time, taking more shots would not hurt him like it does Kobe; the other night against the Jazz, Kobe was having an off day with 15 points and an abysmal FG%; Bynum though picked up the pace and was 12 of 14 with 33 points. He has the potential to do great things, especially with a speedy point guard and Pau as another option.

Kobe just needs to step out of the mentality that he is the only option. Yeah, this isn't 2006 with Smush and Kwame as his options, he has 2 All Star big men flanking him. And these players can bring Los Angeles to championship contention against all odds. If Kobe trusted his teammates and shared the ball a little, we would really have a threatening team on our hands.

The Defending Champs: Finals Contenders?

The old Mavericks were the only team in the league to solve the Miami Heat. By playing team basketball and with defensive stopper Tyson Chandler anchoring the defense, the Mavericks found an answer to Lebron's penetration, specifically the drive-in style of play that allows Lebron to score in crunchtime. Yeah, Lebron CAN actually score in crunchtime. Don't believe me? Look at this, this, and this. All playoff games, all drives, all game winners. As much as we all like to believe that Lebron just can't make an impact in fourth quarters, the Mavs' interior defense in the 2011 NBA Finals was a huge factor in slowing him down. Give the Mavs some credit, it wasn't just a mental collapse on Lebron's part.

Mark Cuban's pursuit of an enormous amount of cap space for the summer of 2012 (which was undoubtedly an effort to give the Mavericks the ability to sign Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, or both) resulted in the loss of Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea, two key cogs in the Mavs' 2011 playoff run (they also lost Caron Butler, but no one cares. The only impact he made in the playoffs was the high fives he gave to Dirk and Jet). Surprisingly enough, however, the Mavs picked up some defensively apt perimeter players for the 2011-12 season, which has allowed them to boast the 6th best defense in the league, allowing just 97.8 points per 100 possessions. Nevertheless, the Mavs' interior defense is now held down by Dirk and Brendan Haywood, who average a COMBINED 10 defensive rebounds per game. Peachy.

The larger problem, however, is the Mavericks offense, and how it's led by several golden oldies who can no longer go ten games without having to sit out one. The "Mavericks" (and I use quotes because the team name is simply a label; the team actually playing is basically a different group of players each game because of all the injuries that have struck this organization) have played 48 games this year, of which:

- Shawn Marion has missed 3

- Dirk Nowitzki has missed 4

- Vince Carter has missed 5

- Lamar Odom has missed 5

- Brendan Haywood has missed 8

- Rodrigue Beaubois has missed 10

- Jason Kidd has missed 11

- Delonte West has missed 19

In addition to the missed games, look at the statistical drops (in comparison to the 2011 playoffs) of the Mavs' key returning players for the 2011-12 season:

- Dirk Nowitzki: -6.8 ppg, -1.3 rpg

- Jason Terry: -2.5 ppg

- Jason Kidd: -3.5 ppg, -1.7 apg

- Shawn Marion: -0.7 ppg, +0.5 rpg (admittedly, not a huge difference here. Marion's been playing at an adequate level all season)

As a team, the Mavericks are averaging 5.2 ppg and an alarming 8.9 rpg (undeniably the area where the Mavs have suffered the most from the loss of Chandler) less than they did in the 2010-11 regular season. Tonight, they took a 109-93 beating from the Lakers in Dallas, where they were outrebounded 46 to 29. The Mavs' bigs were beaten to rebounds by smaller players such as Matt Barnes, who pulled down 9 boards. This offensive mediocrity and laziness has shown through in the Mavs' games against the western conference elite this season. The Mavs are:

- 1-3 vs. the OKC Thunder

- 2-1 vs. the San Antonio Spurs (both wins came as a result of rarely stellar games from players other than Dirk; in the first win, Jason Terry put up 34 points. In the second, Jason Kidd had a double-double with 14 points and 10 assists)

- 0-3 vs. the LA Lakers

- 1-1 vs. the LA Clippers

The question is: Will the Mavs, currently sitting with a 27-21 record, good for 6th in the West, be able to win 4 games of 7 against the teams above? Possibly, if West, Kidd, and Beaubois can get healthy, if Vince Carter (41.6 FG%) and Lamar Odom (34.5 FG%) can actually integrate themselves into the offense, and if Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry can revitalize their level of play to mirror that of the 2011 NBA Playoffs. If ALL of that happens, maybe the Mavs can reach the NBA Finals and have shot at returning to the Promised Land. But will all of this really occur at the right time? Let's be realistic - fat chance.

Linsanity: Jeremy's 15 minutes

Offensive mastermind Mike D'Antoni's recent resignation has hoisted former Atlanta Hawks coach Mike Woodson into the hot seat. This guy actually had a good coaching record with the Hawks (he's coming off a 53 win season from 2009-10), and in his short stint as interim head coach, the Knicks are 3-0 and seem to have taken on a new defensive mentality that was nowhere to be found in the D'Antoni era. But let's try to tackle the question that's on everyone's mind: Will we see a resurgence of the global phenomenon of Linsanity as the Knicks regain their winning ways?

In short, no. Let me preface this, though. I love Jeremy as much as the next guy. The dude's inspirational. But upon closer evaluation of the period of "Linsanity", I find that it's going to be extremely difficult to for Lin to replicate that level of play. Let's say "Linsanity" was the Knicks' 7-game winning streak spanning from Feb 6 to Feb 15. Here are some factors that made Linsanity possible:

1. Carmelo (leading scorer) missed 6 of these games.

2. Amare (second leading scorer) missed 4 of these games.

3. With the scorers out, Jeremy averaged absolutely insane numbers over these 7 games: 24.4 ppg and 9.1 apg. The elite PG's in the league don't even have season averages that match that (Derrick Rose is the closest; he's averaging 22.8 ppg and 8.0 apg on the year). This statistical explosion allowed Jeremy to access comparisons to Michael Jordan and Lebron James. Time Asia was quick to exploit those comparisons.

4. D'Antoni went full-throttle with the PG offense. He gave Jeremy the green light to shoot and to possess the ball for 70% of the Knicks' time on offense.

5. MOST IMPORTANT: Other than the Lakeshow, the Knicks played extremely weak teams over these seven games (e.g. New Jersey, Washington, Toronto, Sacramento).

Just kidding, the Kings are awesome.

Now, let's look at Lin under Woodson: 12.7 ppg and 5.7 apg. Sure, it's only been 3 games, but these numbers are MUCH more accurate indications of how Lin is as a player. He's not holding the ball all the time in Woodson's isolation offense, and is deferring to the scorers. While I certainly disagree with Stephen A. Smith's evaluation of Lin (skip to 1:24), Jeremy Lin is not the second coming of Magic Johnson.

Let's get down to the nitty-gritty of it. Linsanity was more than just basketball, it was viral marketing. Once you have "Lin breaks Jordan's record" or "Lin drops 38 on Kobe" trending on twitter, you have a phenomenon. But Jeremy is mildly famous now. He's not really that unknown underdog anymore. The half-priced Linsanity t-shirts and fan gear signal a dying trend. Jeremy Lin belongs in this league, but the decline of his temporarily astronomical popularity is probably a good thing. I mean, do we really want Jeremy Lin starting over Derrick Rose in the 2013 All-Star Game?

Why the Thunder should take Derek Fisher

Seeing as this is my first post, we should start with the most important fact:

I am a die hard fan of the Los Angeles Lakers.

(Cue boos, flying debris, and Kobe assault jokes.)

In all seriousness, Fish was absolutely key to a lot of the Lake Show's success over the past decade or so, and from the bottom of our hearts, all of the LA fans truly appreciate what he has done for the organization.

But the 0.4 shooter is done with the Lakers (for now...?)

In the meantime, we all know that this guy is going to sign with a major contender.  But why?

It's not necessarily his occasional brilliance in the clutch, or his swiftness on the court, but it's most importantly his experience in the playoffs, and his ability to lead a team emotionally.

Look at how many playoff games Derek Fisher has appeared in.  He's played every historically great team in the league in the regular season, as well as the playoffs, and yes, he's even played the Lakers during his brief tenure with the Warriors and the Jazz.  Derek Fisher knows the game well, but more importantly, he knows the teams, the offenses, the strategies, all of it.  A team like the Thunder has been a dangerous threat in the NBA for the past couple years, but their players are relatively inexperienced in the playoffs, and knowing how veterans like Duncan, Bryant, and Nowitzki work is extremely important for a deep run in the playoffs.  Durant and Westbrook are arguably the best 1,2 punch in league, but having Fisher, who's played all of the scary Western Conference teams (or been on them) plenty of times, would make an even deeper impact on their success.  And, with the season-ending injury of Eric Maynor, Fisher could fill a player void that the Thunder want before the playoffs begin.

Another reason why Fisher could be beneficial to the Thunder is his ability to lead.
Phil Jackson previously called Fisher the spokesperson of the Lakers.  He's also the [official] spokesperson  for the NBPA, as he is a great speaker and seems to be a nice guy.  Fisher is one of the more mature, focused, and driven players, even in his old age, and he can give those motivational speeches, the famous ones that have brought Lakers the success that they have had in the past decade.  Durant and Westbrook have the skill, but as young guns, they don't necessarily have that capability to motivate and energize their team, especially during a stressful time in the playoffs.  The Heat have young stars also, but LeBron and DWade have plenty experience to motivate their players, and hell, the Big 3 can work just fine on their own.  Fisher has that motivation that he can relay to his teammates, and such spirit and wisdom, paired with the aggressiveness and sheer talent currently on the Thunder, can bring OKC the championship they deserve.

Dwight Howard, you just GOB'd up your career.

Howard, who agreed to opt-in to play out the 2012-13 season with the Orlando Magic, has made a huge mistake. Obviously, this preemptive promise was a result of Dwight's capricious, little girl attitude about where he wants to play (this just in, Dwight Howard has decided that he wants waffles for breakfast, not pancakes). He whines about wanting a trade all season long, and then - whoa, it's the trade deadline, and the Magic are THIRD IN THE EAST? All of a sudden, our impulsive little center wants to stick with his old team! No more Nets. No more Lakers. He thinks that the Magic can win a championship, and now he wants to stay (don't get me wrong, this is a legitimate reason for any player to stay with a team, but there's absolutely no chance that the Magic is even making it to the finals).

As evidenced by the spanking that the Magic took tonight at home against the superior Bulls (85 to 59. Yeah, you read that correctly), Howard's Magic aren't going to be making a deep playoff run any time soon. I suspect that that Orlando's statement win against the Miami Heat on March 13 partly fueled Dwight's desire to opt in, but if the Heat and Magic are to face off in a 7-game series, there's no way that the Magic's inconsistent backcourt paired with abysmal 49% FT shooting of Dwight Howard will allow the Magic to survive against the lockdown Miami defense in crunchtime.

Here's the major problem with the Magic: their only light other than Howard is the great play of Ryan Anderson this year (reppin' El Dorado Hills). But seriously, look at the Magic's stats. Dwight Howard, their CENTER, leads the team in four of the five major statistical categories (points, rebounds, steals, blocked shots). Today's game is facilitated by point guards and floor generals. A center can't make as large an impact as a great facilitator such as Chris Paul or Lebron can.

The bottom line: Dwight, unless you get traded by the 2012-13 deadline, it looks like you'll be waiting until your tenth season before you even have a shot at getting a ring. Until then, try to shut up. You chose this, so please tone down the bitching for the next twelve months.